Here are 5 Significant Insights from “Thinking, Fast and Slow” and “The Undoing Project.”
“Leaders who have been lucky are never punished for having taken too much risk. Instead, they are believed to have had the flair and foresight to anticipate success and the sensible people who doubted them are seen in hindsight as mediocre, timid and weak. A few lucky gambles can crown a reckless leader with a halo of prescience and boldness.” (from Thinking, Fast and Slow pg. 203)
Listen to your own “rules of thumb/ intuition” because often the rule is incorrect.
Optimism without restraint or argument can lead to dangerous mistakes.
“Disbelieving is hard work” – Once you have accepted a belief it’s even more difficult to disprove. If the acceptance is within a group, it’s even more difficult to disprove.
How to make better decisions: When faced with a decision fully write out a list of worst case scenarios to your decisions. Slow down your first thought and you might start to clarify your decision. As Kahaneman points out, “learn to recognize situations in which mistakes are likely….it is easier to recognize other people’s mistakes than our own.”
So, if the Seahawks would have beaten, Atlanta, we would be hosting the NFC Championship in Seattle. Last weekend, (RULE OF THUMB) you would have wanted to play at home against the Green Bay Packers, correct? I heard many experts say, Seattle playing at home gives us the best chance. Although there is one fact which one might want to consider before you make a “fast decision/rule of thumb”. Did you know in 50+ years of the NFL there has never been a rookie QB in the Super Bowl? So, take your chance on Mr. Rogers who had over a 115 QB rating or take your chances on a rookie?
Again, we will never know the answer to the question but a (rule of thumb decision), often needs a slower response. Overly optimistic responses will be your first indicator to slow down. In the case of Dallas or Green Bay, it would be interesting how people would answer before and after what happened on Sunday. Most decisions are wagers which need a little slower intuition.
I hope you wager well in 2017.